Getting it Right the First Time: Predicted Performance Guarantees from the Analysis of Emergent Behavior in Autonomous and Semi-autonomous Systems

A crucially important aspect for mission-critical robotic operations is ensuring as best as possible that an autonomous system be able to complete its task. In a project for the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) we are developing methods to provide such guidance, specifically for counter-Weapons of Mass Destruction (C-WMD) missions. In this paper, we describe the scenarios under consideration, the performance measures and metrics being developed, and an outline of the mechanisms for providing performance guarantees.